Copa América Betting: Argentina no sure things against dark horses Venezuela

Jack Lang thinks the underdogs could shine in Rio, while Colombia are deserved favourites against Chile… You can prefer to the soccer handicap tips page!

Vinotinto can test Messi and co

Venezuela v Argentina

Friday, 20:00

Live on Premier Sports 1

The casual observer might look at this fixture and think there is a clear favourite. Perhaps that observer would already start getting excited about the inevitable Brazil v Argentina semi-final that lies in wait. But while the Albiceleste have the weight of tradition on their side against a Venezuela side that has never won a major title, there is really no reason to assume they will emerge victorious here.

Argentina limped into the quarter-finals, thankful for having been drawn in a fairly weak group. Their sole victory came against a fading Qatar side, and even that was workmanlike rather than convincing.

The system used in that final game - under 2.5 soccer tip with Lionel Messi roaming around the frontline - is likely to be maintained here, but you get the sense Lionel Scaloni is rooting around in the dark, desperately clinging to anything that works. He doesn't know if he'll have a job next month; unless the unthinkable happens, he probably won't.

Scaloni won't be over the moon lớn be facing Venezuela at the Maracanã. The Vinotinto, after all, condemned his side lớn a 3-1 win in a friendly earlier this year, and while that was a friendly, seven of the Argentina players likely lớn start on Friday night started in March, too. Venezuela's swift, direct attacks, led by Salomón Rondón with support from flying wingers Darwin Machís and Jhon Murillo, caused the Albiceleste backline real issues, and any repeat here could be fatal.

Venezuela will know they will have lớn deal with Lionel Messi, but their backline has been solid thus far - one goal conceded - and in Rafael Dudamel they have a coach who will dispel any notion of inferiority. Quot;We came lớn this tournament to play six matches," he said this week, which is music lớn our ears given we recommended backing them in our antepost selections.

Could Argentina produce a performance worthy of a semi-final spot, blowing away some of the doubts that surround them. It is possible. But again, we see no reason for them lớn be such heavy favourites - 1.61this time - and are thus happy lớn back an improving, dogged Venezuela on the Asian handicap market.